Sitemap - 2023 - Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

The Fed, inflation, and soft landing road show

Wishing you and your family a joyous and merry Christmas!

We are landing this plane, softly.

The Wild Ride Is Not Over: When Will the Fed Cut and Does It Matter?

The Sahm rule: step by step

I was right.

Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic

Why might this time be different?

Quick update on the Sahm rule

Sometimes, the impossible is possible. Ask the US economy.

Jay Powell's Greenspan moment

Circling Back: Gloom, Dots, and GDP

The SEP Strikes Back

It's what you thought you knew but didn't that breaks your heart: GDP revision edition

Why can't we shake the gloom? It's more than inflation or higher prices.

Labor Day is the end of summer. What if it's the end of the strong labor market, too?

The Star-ry Night in Jackson Hole

What would Frances Perkins do?


How good is the economics in Bidenomics?

Looking local for early signs of trouble

Inflation: it's "complicated"

Price-price spirals take us for a spin

Is the Fed data-driven or data-ridden?

Like the debt ceiling can't hold us

The Fed will not pivot

Don't build your castle on shifting sands: the Phillips Curve(s) edition

This recovery is worth fighting for

Scary economists and bad news

Requests for paid-only posts

Enjoy a 'snack-size' version of Substack

Happy Easter

The Fed should hit pause and give us a chance to catch up

All eyes are on the Fed, now more than ever

Trust is hard to gain but is even harder to regain once lost: the Fed should speak up now

A Fed tale as old as time ...

What could Fed Chair Jay Powell say to the 2 million people likely to be unemployed?

Hidden costs in auto loans and discrimination

Can the Fed bring inflation down alone?

A "Top Gun landing"

The "sufficiently restrictive" Fed. Part 1: The labor market


The Phillips Curve is dying a slow (and not painful for us) death

What's at stake with restoring 'balance' to the labor market?

A boring Fed is the new Fed

Retail sales may not be as bad as they look

Fed, you're so vain; you probably think this economy is about you

Transformation from über dove to über hawk

Gloves off. It's sickening. Fight for workers, fight against the Fed #TeamWorkers

Come walk with me ...

We need to restore balance: a recession is not the path to balance

Olivier throws it down: the Fed does not decide what is inflation is, we do