Archive - Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

May 2025

A data-driven Fed need not be a behind-the-curve Fed

The Fed will remain on hold today, keeping the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

May 7 •

April 2025

A crash course in Fed independence

With recession odds rising and the stock market down, it is no surprise that President Trump thinks the Fed's ‘wait-and-see’ approach to rate cuts is a…

Apr 23 •

An Interview With Claudia Sahm

Of rules, recessions and more

Published on Paul Krugman • Apr 13

March 2025

Stagflationary risks will slow the Fed down

The parade of Fedspeakers this week affirmed key messages from the Fed meeting last week: uncertainty about the outlook, some pessimism about inflation…

Mar 28 •

DOGE recession?

DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks.

Mar 4 •

February 2025

Inflation. How worried should we be?

Last week, we learned that the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.47% in January, well above expectations.

Feb 17 •

January 2025

The Fed gets to be boring for now

The Fed’s meeting yesterday lived up to expectations: boring.

Jan 30 •

December 2024

The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections isn't living up to its promises

On December 18th, the Fed officials voted to reduce the fund’s rate by 25 basis points, tightened their forward guidance on future cuts, and issued a…

Dec 30, 2024 •

Why is growth so good and how do we keep it going?

My interview on Bloomberg this morning started with a trillion-dollar question:

Dec 2, 2024 •

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