Archive - Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

Who's afraid of a negative payroll print?

Jobs Day will likely be messier than usual with recent hurricanes and a strike weighing temporarily on payrolls. Even with solid underlying growth the…

Oct 29 •

I'm honored to be part of the MarketWatch 50 for 2024.

Oct 20 •

It's harder to find work and that's unacceptable

Companies aren’t so worried that they’re letting a lot of people go, but they’re also not so confident that they’re hiring a lot of people.

Oct 8 •

September 2024

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce its policy rate on Wednesday.

Sep 16 •

Labor market conditions.

Tomorrow is the jobs report for August 2024.

Sep 6 •

August 2024

Looking back to look forward: Jackson Hole preview

Fed Chair Jay Powell will deliver his annual remarks this Friday at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. With the Fed poised to start its…

Aug 19 •

July 2024

Jul 31 •

Sahm-thing more on the Sahm rule

The rise in the unemployment rate has raised concerns about the possibility of a recession, but the story is not as simple as the usual rules of thumb.

Jul 26 •

Getting back to normal

Fed Chair Jay Powell is on the Hill this week with the latest employment numbers fresh in everyone's minds.

Jul 9 •

June 2024

Inflation, Inflation, Inflation

Last week, we learned more about inflation. It was good news, but not good enough for the Fed and certainly not for the American people.

Jun 4 •

May 2024

Anger about the economy is everywhere

Inflation is out of control, the US is in a recession, and unemployment is high--at least that's what "the survey says." Or is it?

May 27 •

Confidence is the name of the Fed game

Wednesday we get the CPI for April. The stakes are high after the three tough months. It feels like every basis point counts, but that's not true.

May 14 •

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