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The best way to solve a labor shortage is with labor
In July we added a 1/2 million jobs on net, wages rose briskly and the unemployment rate fell to its 50-year low. That's a sign of progress.
Claudia Sahm
Aug 8
22
7
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The best way to solve a labor shortage is with labor
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The future of forward guidance
The Fed has been usually specific this year about its plans, signaling the likely size of interest rate hikes ahead of time. Last week Chair Powell said…
Claudia Sahm
Aug 1
3
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The future of forward guidance
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"Softening in labor market conditions" will hit millions of workers and their families hard
The Fed raised rates another 75 basis points this week in its aggressive effort to curb inflation. Worryingly, it sees the strength of workers as…
Claudia Sahm
Jul 29
17
4
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"Softening in labor market conditions" will hit millions of workers and their families hard
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Friday Macro Unwind - July 22
We made it!
Claudia Sahm
Jul 22
11
1
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Friday Macro Unwind - July 22
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Recession: medicine that's worse than the disease
Some experts say we need a recession to bring high inflation down. That's incorrect. Their model of the economy and views on what's causing inflation…
Claudia Sahm
Jul 20
29
17
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Recession: medicine that's worse than the disease
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Anchors away
The Fed says inflation expectations are anchored, but it worries they won't stay that way. What does that mean and why is it important enough to risk…
Claudia Sahm
Jul 14
16
2
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Anchors away
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Was Jobs Day a good day for the Fed?
372,000 more jobs in June and unemployment rate at 3.6%. We are not in a recession, but if the Fed gets too anxious about the labor market's strength…
Claudia Sahm
Jul 10
3
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Was Jobs Day a good day for the Fed?
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Sending money to kids didn't cause high inflation
Last year the new Child Tax Credit sent money to families monthly, supporting kids from the poor to the middle class. It expired at the end of the year…
Claudia Sahm
Jul 6
17
7
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Sending money to kids didn't cause high inflation
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The dark side of a data-driven Fed
Data are central to Fed policymaking, and that's a good thing. However, data are imperfect and do not speak for themselves, so sometimes they lead us…
Claudia Sahm
Jun 27
4
3
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The dark side of a data-driven Fed
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Don't make the Fed go it alone on inflation
The Fed is raising interest rates to cool off demand and bring inflation down. That's trading one hardship for another. The White House and Congress…
Claudia Sahm
Jun 26
8
2
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Don't make the Fed go it alone on inflation
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Congress and the White House must 'move heaven and earth' to get gasoline prices down!
Gas is $5 a gallon. That's a dollar and half more than before Putin invaded Ukraine and two and half more than when the pandemic began. It's time to…
Claudia Sahm
Jun 17
17
7
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Congress and the White House must 'move heaven and earth' to get gasoline prices down!
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In Fed we trust
The least democratic institution in the government is the only one trying to bring down inflation. That's far too risky. Congress and White House must…
Claudia Sahm
Jun 16
15
3
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In Fed we trust
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