Stay-At-Home Macro | Claudia Sahm | Substack

Reality shows a "soft landing" in 2023 in the United States taking shape. We avoid a recession, we keep the job-full recovery, and inflation moves back down. Hawks, it's time to join us in reality.

Dec 3

Yesterday, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard gave a speech, "What Can We Learn from the Pandemic and the War about Supply Shocks, Inflation, and Monetary Policy?" It starts an important conversation.

Nov 29

Economic policy is at a crossroads and it's essential for new thinking and new experts.

Dec 6

Inflation is high and a global recession looms. In times of crisis, policymakers must provide relief. It is possible even when inflation is high.

Nov 21

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It's not time to talk about "turning the corner on inflation." Even when it is time in the United States, it will have likely come with substantial…

Sep 1

The Fed continues to raise interest rates aggressively, making it costly for Americans to defend democracy in Ukraine and threatening a recession. It's…

Nov 2

Our profession has immense power in the world and with power comes responsibility. It's time to face the facts. We are a disgrace and must do better.

Oct 24

In July we added a 1/2 million jobs on net, wages rose briskly and the unemployment rate fell to its 50-year low. That's a sign of progress.

Aug 8

Hourly wages of workers rose 0.6 percent in November. That was higher than expected and stoked fears of more inflation. Not so fast [literally] there's…

2 hr ago

Wile E. Coyote is not a serious forecast. It is not how we should think about 2023.

Dec 5

I hope today is a joyous day for each of you.

Nov 24

I am opening up a chat for my Substack for paid subscribers. It's an opportunity for us to talk and exchange ideas for future posts

Nov 22

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Stay-At-Home Macro

My goal is to make economic policy and macroeconomics better.

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