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Stay-At-Home Macro
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Inflation is not the emergencyConsumer price inflation edged up some in September but is well below its highs earlier this year. We are not out of the woods yet, but it's not our biggest risk now.
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Will the real Larry Summers please stand up?Throughout his career, Larry Summers has been a leader in macroeconomics, holding powerful positions in academia and policy. He advances "Big Ideas" bu…
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Universal cash for kids pays offChildren are our best investment. They are the future. Congress must use its once-in-a-generation opportunity to do more for all our kids.
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Macro tip #1: Learn from your mistakesEconomists are often asked to predict the future, but no one can. The present is even hard to explain. Good macro isn't the numbers; it's the story. Ge…
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What to expect when you're expecting inflation?New research from Jeremy Rudd, a senior adviser at the Fed, made a stir last week. Inflation expectations might sound like a snoozer. Nope, they're a b…
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Taking requests for paid-subscriber-only posts Starting this week I will write once a week for you, my paid subscribers. I would like your requests. I am open to all things Fed, fiscal, and macro.
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The Fed's image problem: ItselfThe Fed speaks and Wall Street jumps. The Fed pumps trillions into financial markets and it jumps higher. So, what about Main Street?
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It's time for the 'dot plot' to go.Tomorrow we learn when each Fed official thinks it will be the right time to raise interest rates. So, is it liftoff in 2022 vs 2023? Pointless to gues…
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