Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Notes
Archive
About
Latest
Top
Discussions
The labor market won't offer the same buffer this time
It’s Jobs Week.
Jun 4
•
Claudia Sahm
198
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
The labor market won't offer the same buffer this time
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
53
DOGE recession?
DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks.
Mar 4
•
Claudia Sahm
165
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
DOGE recession?
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
44
What are inflation surprises telling us about tariffs?
[Updated on June 21 to correct my discussion of PPI trade service margins.
Jun 18
•
Claudia Sahm
96
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
What are inflation surprises telling us about tariffs?
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
30
A crash course in Fed independence
With recession odds rising and the stock market down, it is no surprise that President Trump thinks the Fed's ‘wait-and-see’ approach to rate cuts is a…
Apr 23
•
Claudia Sahm
113
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
A crash course in Fed independence
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
32
Cut
It's time.
Jul 31, 2024
•
Claudia Sahm
58
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Cut
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
5
Inflation. How worried should we be?
Last week, we learned that the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.47% in January, well above expectations.
Feb 17
•
Claudia Sahm
110
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Inflation. How worried should we be?
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
21
Stagflationary risks will slow the Fed down
The parade of Fedspeakers this week affirmed key messages from the Fed meeting last week: uncertainty about the outlook, some pessimism about inflation…
Mar 28
•
Claudia Sahm
104
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Stagflationary risks will slow the Fed down
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
10
Sahm-thing more on the Sahm rule
The rise in the unemployment rate has raised concerns about the possibility of a recession, but the story is not as simple as the usual rules of thumb.
Jul 26, 2024
•
Claudia Sahm
95
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Sahm-thing more on the Sahm rule
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
24
A data-driven Fed need not be a behind-the-curve Fed
The Fed will remain on hold today, keeping the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
May 7
•
Claudia Sahm
76
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
A data-driven Fed need not be a behind-the-curve Fed
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
17
Stagflation Summer
The summer months should bring more clarity on how President Trump’s economic policies are affecting the economy.
Jul 2
•
Claudia Sahm
87
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Stagflation Summer
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
12
The reckoning with inflation
Many are tying the Democrat losses in the election to high inflation in recent years. There's some truth to that, but it's complicated and it's crucial…
Nov 11, 2024
•
Claudia Sahm
119
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
The reckoning with inflation
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
44
I was right.
This weekend, Joe Weisenthal asked the following question:
Dec 3, 2023
•
Claudia Sahm
97
Share this post
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
I was right.
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
42
Share
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts