Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

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The labor market won't offer the same buffer this time
It’s Jobs Week.
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Claudia Sahm
53
DOGE recession?
DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks.
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Claudia Sahm
44
What are inflation surprises telling us about tariffs?
[Updated on June 21 to correct my discussion of PPI trade service margins.
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Claudia Sahm
30
A crash course in Fed independence
With recession odds rising and the stock market down, it is no surprise that President Trump thinks the Fed's ‘wait-and-see’ approach to rate cuts is a…
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Claudia Sahm
32
Cut
It's time.
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Claudia Sahm
5
Inflation. How worried should we be?
Last week, we learned that the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.47% in January, well above expectations.
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Claudia Sahm
21
Stagflationary risks will slow the Fed down
The parade of Fedspeakers this week affirmed key messages from the Fed meeting last week: uncertainty about the outlook, some pessimism about inflation…
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Claudia Sahm
10
Sahm-thing more on the Sahm rule
The rise in the unemployment rate has raised concerns about the possibility of a recession, but the story is not as simple as the usual rules of thumb.
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Claudia Sahm
24
A data-driven Fed need not be a behind-the-curve Fed
The Fed will remain on hold today, keeping the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
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Claudia Sahm
17
Stagflation Summer
The summer months should bring more clarity on how President Trump’s economic policies are affecting the economy.
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Claudia Sahm
12
The reckoning with inflation
Many are tying the Democrat losses in the election to high inflation in recent years. There's some truth to that, but it's complicated and it's crucial…
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Claudia Sahm
44
I was right.
This weekend, Joe Weisenthal asked the following question:
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Claudia Sahm
42
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