Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
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Let's get real: the American Rescue Plan was the best economic policy in forty years
Nearly a year and a half into the recovery from the Covid recession, it's indisputable that fiscal relief was a success. Not so, after the Great…
Claudia Sahm
Dec 7, 2021
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Let's get real: the American Rescue Plan was the best economic policy in forty years
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Olivier throws it down: the Fed does not decide what is inflation is, we do
Macroeconomics is waking up and not a moment too soon. Olivier Blanchard, a prominent macroeconomist, has started an important conversation about the…
Claudia Sahm
Jan 2
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Olivier throws it down: the Fed does not decide what is inflation is, we do
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Ban the Phillips Curve
The stakes are too high to use the Phillips Curve with its unreliable tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. We don't need millions of Americans…
Claudia Sahm
Dec 14, 2022
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Ban the Phillips Curve
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The Sahm rule: I created a monster
The Sahm rule is a widely followed indicator of recessions. It's gotten a lot of attention from experts who use it to argue we're not in recession and…
Claudia Sahm
Dec 30, 2022
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The Sahm rule: I created a monster
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Burden of proof is on the inflation hawks now
Reality shows a "soft landing" in 2023 in the United States taking shape. We avoid a recession, we keep the job-full recovery, and inflation moves back…
Claudia Sahm
Dec 3, 2022
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Burden of proof is on the inflation hawks now
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A Fed tale as old as time ...
The tale of Silicon Valley Bank and its fallout is still being written, and yet, it’s a story we know all too well. In fact, banking crises are at the…
Claudia Sahm
Mar 14
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A Fed tale as old as time ...
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What could Fed Chair Jay Powell say to the 2 million people likely to be unemployed?
Earlier this week, Senator Elizabeth Warren pushed Fed Chair Jay Powell on what he would say to the two million workers the Fed expects will lose their…
Claudia Sahm
Mar 9
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What could Fed Chair Jay Powell say to the 2 million people likely to be unemployed?
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Buckle up: the worst is yet to come
The global economy is deteriorating. It's time for the Fed to do the right thing: slow down or even better pause its interest rate hikes. It's going too…
Claudia Sahm
Oct 16, 2022
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Buckle up: the worst is yet to come
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Emily Oster is making strong claims about Omicron and schools based on weak data
The economist says schools should remain open, but her data aren't convincing.
Claudia Sahm
Jan 5, 2022
20
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Emily Oster is making strong claims about Omicron and schools based on weak data
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We are not in a recession, nor is one inevitable.
Americans are rightly angry about inflation. A strong labor market is not enough reason to celebrate. But, we are coming out of, not going into the…
Claudia Sahm
Jun 7, 2022
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We are not in a recession, nor is one inevitable.
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Can the Fed bring inflation down alone?
No, it cannot.
Claudia Sahm
Feb 23
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Can the Fed bring inflation down alone?
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Be the change in economics
Our profession has immense power in the world and with power comes responsibility. It's time to face the facts. We are a disgrace and must do better.
Claudia Sahm
Oct 24, 2022
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Be the change in economics
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