The parade of Fedspeakers this week affirmed key messages from the Fed meeting last week: uncertainty about the outlook, some pessimism about inflation and growth this year with risks skewed toward stagflation, and a willingness to wait for more information before adjusting policy.
MMT remains a superb platform for Democratics to reform government effectively, win elections and ensure global & National security. I call for a peaceful Blue Revolution, oaths to the the Constitution we’ve taken…past time to fulfill them!!!
I hope you’re recovering well Claudia. You remain in my very Catholic prayers.
Trump is calling April 2 as "Liberation Day" of America when the reciprocal tariffs go into effect. April 1 should've been a more suitable date to mark this farce of "liberation".
Thank you as always for the best macro commentary. I'm wondering how expected fiscal policy fits into these forecasts--a massive tax cut and budget cuts falling heavily on the states and insufficient to offset a ballooning deficit. I don't think there's much theory about deficits in a time of stagflation, nor the impact of a tax cut where nearly 60% goes to the top 1.8% of taxpayers, per the Biden Office of Tax Analysis. I look forward to your analysis of the impact of impending tax and budget policy.
Yesterday's consumer sentiment was very telling which included the one-year inflation expectations at 5% and the 5-year inflation expectations at 4.1% which is the worst in 32 years. No matter what Republicans tell you, tariffs are not a funding mechanism. They will act as a fiscal drag on the economy with adverse effects on incomes, growth and employment. Next week will be interesting to watch including April 2nd (tariff liberation day) along with the March jobs report.
Writing on April 7, I fear things got even more complicated for the Fed. Stronger headwinds on the growth front as equity prices continue to dive and, if bond yields go higher we have a full-fledged liquidity crisis ahead of us. All this as prices rise.
Uncertainty is the one thing that's certain. We're living in wild times where anything can happen at any time. While we're not living in the '70's, thanks to GOP propaganda, the mere mention of inflation triggers visions of those days, unfortunately.
I wish you all the best on your road to recovery Claudia.
Thanks for the sensitive (and measured) analysis. I hope the long essay reflects your vigor and return to good health.
FFOTUS destroying our economy through his apartheid raised s.african criminal…no way. But egg prices…
Nevermind National Security incompetence, cruel/illegal immigration deportations, Allies/Partners abandonment, currency grift, delusional efficiency efforts, self-inflicted trade war…I despise these MOFO’n traitorous robber barons.
MMT remains a superb platform for Democratics to reform government effectively, win elections and ensure global & National security. I call for a peaceful Blue Revolution, oaths to the the Constitution we’ve taken…past time to fulfill them!!!
I hope you’re recovering well Claudia. You remain in my very Catholic prayers.
Trump is calling April 2 as "Liberation Day" of America when the reciprocal tariffs go into effect. April 1 should've been a more suitable date to mark this farce of "liberation".
Totally get what you’re saying. It’s wild how the Fed has to juggle inflation and growth right now. Definitely a tricky situation ahead!
Thank you as always for the best macro commentary. I'm wondering how expected fiscal policy fits into these forecasts--a massive tax cut and budget cuts falling heavily on the states and insufficient to offset a ballooning deficit. I don't think there's much theory about deficits in a time of stagflation, nor the impact of a tax cut where nearly 60% goes to the top 1.8% of taxpayers, per the Biden Office of Tax Analysis. I look forward to your analysis of the impact of impending tax and budget policy.
Yesterday's consumer sentiment was very telling which included the one-year inflation expectations at 5% and the 5-year inflation expectations at 4.1% which is the worst in 32 years. No matter what Republicans tell you, tariffs are not a funding mechanism. They will act as a fiscal drag on the economy with adverse effects on incomes, growth and employment. Next week will be interesting to watch including April 2nd (tariff liberation day) along with the March jobs report.
I wholeheartedly agree. There’s no way the Fed can preemptively act to support activity when they don’t know where expectations are.
The outlook continues to be challenged for both main street and wall street. Expect to see falling living standards in the USA for the rest of 2025
Writing on April 7, I fear things got even more complicated for the Fed. Stronger headwinds on the growth front as equity prices continue to dive and, if bond yields go higher we have a full-fledged liquidity crisis ahead of us. All this as prices rise.
Uncertainty is the one thing that's certain. We're living in wild times where anything can happen at any time. While we're not living in the '70's, thanks to GOP propaganda, the mere mention of inflation triggers visions of those days, unfortunately.
I wish you all the best on your road to recovery Claudia.