DOGE truly has no idea what they're doing whatsoever. To me this isn't about government efficiency this is all about picking winners and losers in this economy. Not to mention the tariffs that will go into effect today that will raise prices for American consumers as well. Wish you good health.
Thank you for an insightful and sober analysis. I am grateful for your kindness. I wish you well; I hope all goes smoothly. Look forward you your good health news.
CS: Thanks as always for another illuminating and transparent analysis. I remain worried about a recession or worse, partly because we can't know the impact on the economy of all the contract and grant disruption (especially as to large private-sector investments that were put in train by the Biden administration's infrastructure incentives).
Regardless, best wishes for a speedy and complete recovery!
I think youre underestimating the secondary impacts of DOGE. Simple ones that have been talked about like USAID impact on US farmers/farm sales to the contracts that are being threatened, and the people those contracts hire. Look at full budgets of the agencies that are being disrupted by DOGE. For example NIH inability to award grants is impacting graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and staff, whose jobs are under extreme threat if awards dont get released soon. Those are not federal employees, but they will become unemployed as secondary effect. Dont really know how to count this, but many budgets are majority salaries/people.
In my piece the contractors and employees under the grants are three times the magnitude of the federal workers. I agree it's hard to know how large that will be.
[warning, i thought about it, and haha, i did take econ 101, but a WAY long time ago!! 🤪Please feel free to correct, reject as nonsensical, but please be gentle. My thanks in advance for that grace.]
Ok, so 3x is the estimate of ratio of direct contractors to fed employees from that Brookings report. But it doesnt count the employment created by the grants, contracts. E.g., if my city gets a grant, they do stuff with the money, which includes hiring people to do the stuff, etc.
What if as rough approximation we tried to estimate those secondaries using the US GDP/#employed ratio? Sort of saying those grants, contracts go into the US economy, and are used as efficiently as other $$. That # for US is $151,286 (World bank, 2023).
So that would say if doge saved $1T, it might impact 6.6M as secondary (no longer employeds). A much bigger #.
DOGE truly has no idea what they're doing whatsoever. To me this isn't about government efficiency this is all about picking winners and losers in this economy. Not to mention the tariffs that will go into effect today that will raise prices for American consumers as well. Wish you good health.
Thank you for an insightful and sober analysis. I am grateful for your kindness. I wish you well; I hope all goes smoothly. Look forward you your good health news.
I hope all further treatment goes well and that you make a full recovery.
Recover well Claudia. So sorry to hear about your illness.
CS: Thanks as always for another illuminating and transparent analysis. I remain worried about a recession or worse, partly because we can't know the impact on the economy of all the contract and grant disruption (especially as to large private-sector investments that were put in train by the Biden administration's infrastructure incentives).
Regardless, best wishes for a speedy and complete recovery!
I wish you all the best in surgery, Claudia.
Happy to hear you’re making good progress in re your battle with cancer!
Thank you Dr Sahm and wish you the best for your surgery.
As always a great read. More importantly good luck with your cancer journey. This is what matters most.
Indispensable perspective. Many thanks and best wishes overcoming your ordeal.
Thank you Claudia. Your insight is refreshing and to the point. Myself and my friends are sending you positive vibes. Best of luck and much Love.
Well done Claudia! Best wishes and prayers for your journey back to full health.
As always, thank you for sharing this post. Very best wishes for your treatment!
Best wishes, really
Best wishes for your upcoming surgery. Hope you return to full health soon.
I think youre underestimating the secondary impacts of DOGE. Simple ones that have been talked about like USAID impact on US farmers/farm sales to the contracts that are being threatened, and the people those contracts hire. Look at full budgets of the agencies that are being disrupted by DOGE. For example NIH inability to award grants is impacting graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and staff, whose jobs are under extreme threat if awards dont get released soon. Those are not federal employees, but they will become unemployed as secondary effect. Dont really know how to count this, but many budgets are majority salaries/people.
In my piece the contractors and employees under the grants are three times the magnitude of the federal workers. I agree it's hard to know how large that will be.
Lemme think on that a bit. Is there a source for the 3x number?
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-government-too-big-reflections-on-the-size-and-composition-of-todays-federal-government/
[warning, i thought about it, and haha, i did take econ 101, but a WAY long time ago!! 🤪Please feel free to correct, reject as nonsensical, but please be gentle. My thanks in advance for that grace.]
Ok, so 3x is the estimate of ratio of direct contractors to fed employees from that Brookings report. But it doesnt count the employment created by the grants, contracts. E.g., if my city gets a grant, they do stuff with the money, which includes hiring people to do the stuff, etc.
What if as rough approximation we tried to estimate those secondaries using the US GDP/#employed ratio? Sort of saying those grants, contracts go into the US economy, and are used as efficiently as other $$. That # for US is $151,286 (World bank, 2023).
So that would say if doge saved $1T, it might impact 6.6M as secondary (no longer employeds). A much bigger #.