DOGE truly has no idea what they're doing whatsoever. To me this isn't about government efficiency this is all about picking winners and losers in this economy. Not to mention the tariffs that will go into effect today that will raise prices for American consumers as well. Wish you good health.
Thank you for an insightful and sober analysis. I am grateful for your kindness. I wish you well; I hope all goes smoothly. Look forward you your good health news.
I think youre underestimating the secondary impacts of DOGE. Simple ones that have been talked about like USAID impact on US farmers/farm sales to the contracts that are being threatened, and the people those contracts hire. Look at full budgets of the agencies that are being disrupted by DOGE. For example NIH inability to award grants is impacting graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and staff, whose jobs are under extreme threat if awards dont get released soon. Those are not federal employees, but they will become unemployed as secondary effect. Dont really know how to count this, but many budgets are majority salaries/people.
In my piece the contractors and employees under the grants are three times the magnitude of the federal workers. I agree it's hard to know how large that will be.
Dr. Sahm, I appreciate the thought and care you put into this. My take-away is that the direct impact of DOGE lay-offs is unlikely to cause a recession. I'll be curious to hear your further thoughts on how the fallout and the rest of the Trump/Musk actions are likely to affect us. I'm esp. curious to read your thoughts on the Atlanta Fed GDP model which seems unsettling to me.
I agree that cuts to the federal workforce and cancelled contracts would not be sufficient in and of themselves to cause a recession. However, when put together with signs that the AI bubble is beginning to pop, the corresponding sell off of overvalued stocks, layoffs in tech, the closure of retail chains that will certainly be exacerbated by tariffs...I believe the cumulative effect will push the US into a recession.
Very useful inward look - but internationally there are three significant actors (and many less significant) who feel international agreements are optional: China, the US and Russia are all likely to ignore, among others, WTO rulings they don't like. While the rise of fall of empires is a long tradition, it has never happened while such an empire was sitting on hundreds of thousands of nukes. However we do know that, when the time comes, the security of the state is seldom predictable or foremost - even in the minds of those who believe they ARE the state. Indeed such minds frequently end up splattered on a wall. I appreciate the attempt to remain logical and reasonable but at some point it becomes a disservice. All the best.
DOGE truly has no idea what they're doing whatsoever. To me this isn't about government efficiency this is all about picking winners and losers in this economy. Not to mention the tariffs that will go into effect today that will raise prices for American consumers as well. Wish you good health.
Thank you for an insightful and sober analysis. I am grateful for your kindness. I wish you well; I hope all goes smoothly. Look forward you your good health news.
Happy to hear you’re making good progress in re your battle with cancer!
I hope all further treatment goes well and that you make a full recovery.
Thank you Dr Sahm and wish you the best for your surgery.
Indispensable perspective. Many thanks and best wishes overcoming your ordeal.
Thank you Claudia. Your insight is refreshing and to the point. Myself and my friends are sending you positive vibes. Best of luck and much Love.
Well done Claudia! Best wishes and prayers for your journey back to full health.
Sending you good thoughts as you go through treatment. Hope all goes well, Claudia.
Recover well Claudia. So sorry to hear about your illness.
I think youre underestimating the secondary impacts of DOGE. Simple ones that have been talked about like USAID impact on US farmers/farm sales to the contracts that are being threatened, and the people those contracts hire. Look at full budgets of the agencies that are being disrupted by DOGE. For example NIH inability to award grants is impacting graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and staff, whose jobs are under extreme threat if awards dont get released soon. Those are not federal employees, but they will become unemployed as secondary effect. Dont really know how to count this, but many budgets are majority salaries/people.
In my piece the contractors and employees under the grants are three times the magnitude of the federal workers. I agree it's hard to know how large that will be.
Lemme think on that a bit. Is there a source for the 3x number?
Dr. Sahm, I appreciate the thought and care you put into this. My take-away is that the direct impact of DOGE lay-offs is unlikely to cause a recession. I'll be curious to hear your further thoughts on how the fallout and the rest of the Trump/Musk actions are likely to affect us. I'm esp. curious to read your thoughts on the Atlanta Fed GDP model which seems unsettling to me.
I wish you all the best in surgery, Claudia.
I agree that cuts to the federal workforce and cancelled contracts would not be sufficient in and of themselves to cause a recession. However, when put together with signs that the AI bubble is beginning to pop, the corresponding sell off of overvalued stocks, layoffs in tech, the closure of retail chains that will certainly be exacerbated by tariffs...I believe the cumulative effect will push the US into a recession.
Be well, Claudia
Very useful inward look - but internationally there are three significant actors (and many less significant) who feel international agreements are optional: China, the US and Russia are all likely to ignore, among others, WTO rulings they don't like. While the rise of fall of empires is a long tradition, it has never happened while such an empire was sitting on hundreds of thousands of nukes. However we do know that, when the time comes, the security of the state is seldom predictable or foremost - even in the minds of those who believe they ARE the state. Indeed such minds frequently end up splattered on a wall. I appreciate the attempt to remain logical and reasonable but at some point it becomes a disservice. All the best.