Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

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What are inflation surprises telling us about tariffs?
[Updated on June 21 to correct my discussion of PPI trade service margins.
 • 
Claudia Sahm
29
The labor market won't offer the same buffer this time
It’s Jobs Week.
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Claudia Sahm
53
A data-driven Fed need not be a behind-the-curve Fed
The Fed will remain on hold today, keeping the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
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Claudia Sahm
17
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The labor market won't offer the same buffer this time
 • Claudia Sahm
53
DOGE recession?
 • Claudia Sahm
44
A crash course in Fed independence
 • Claudia Sahm
32
Cut
 • Claudia Sahm
5
Inflation. How worried should we be?
 • Claudia Sahm
21
Stagflationary risks will slow the Fed down
 • Claudia Sahm
10
A crash course in Fed independence
With recession odds rising and the stock market down, it is no surprise that President Trump thinks the Fed's ‘wait-and-see’ approach to rate cuts is a…
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Claudia Sahm
32
Stagflationary risks will slow the Fed down
The parade of Fedspeakers this week affirmed key messages from the Fed meeting last week: uncertainty about the outlook, some pessimism about inflation…
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Claudia Sahm
10
DOGE recession?
DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks.
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Claudia Sahm
44
Inflation. How worried should we be?
Last week, we learned that the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.47% in January, well above expectations.
 • 
Claudia Sahm
21
The Fed gets to be boring for now
The Fed’s meeting yesterday lived up to expectations: boring.
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Claudia Sahm
8
The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections isn't living up to its promises
On December 18th, the Fed officials voted to reduce the fund’s rate by 25 basis points, tightened their forward guidance on future cuts, and issued a…
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Claudia Sahm
15
Why is growth so good and how do we keep it going?
My interview on Bloomberg this morning started with a trillion-dollar question:
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Claudia Sahm
10
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
My goal is to make economic policy and macroeconomics better.
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