Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
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All good things in moderation: Fed communication needs a reboot
Communication policy is a powerful tool for the Fed, but it's become overpowering. Hearing from the Fed is a good thing, but too much of a good thing is…
Apr 19
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Claudia Sahm
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All good things in moderation: Fed communication needs a reboot
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Sticky is not stuck: inflation
Inflation. Inflation. Inflation. It's been a rough start to the year on inflation, but it's not all bad news. Most importantly, it shows a path forward…
Apr 16
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Claudia Sahm
33
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Sticky is not stuck: inflation
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The Labor Market Is Strong
In March 2023, the U.S. labor market continued its rock solid push forward, with 303,000 more jobs and the unemployment rate back down to 3.8%. Are…
Apr 5
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Claudia Sahm
48
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The Labor Market Is Strong
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March 2024
No, you didn't invent the Sahm rule and that's ok, we need more tools! - Revised
I am sending a more ‘just the facts’ version of Friday’s post on the Sahm rule. It’s updated on the website, too. Apologies for ‘the me’ in the original…
Mar 31
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Claudia Sahm
23
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No, you didn't invent the Sahm rule and that's ok, we need more tools! - Revised
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No, you didn't invent the Sahm rule and that's ok, we need more tools!
The Sahm rule has gotten more attention recently and predictably that has come with questions about who created it. I did. Now is a good opportunity to…
Mar 29
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Claudia Sahm
66
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No, you didn't invent the Sahm rule and that's ok, we need more tools!
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Clarification on Connecting the dots: March FOMC edition
I updated the “In closing” section above the paywall based on a reader’s question. I explain more clearly why the “do nothing” to the dot plot would be…
Mar 19
•
Claudia Sahm
11
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Clarification on Connecting the dots: March FOMC edition
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Connecting the dots: March FOMC edition
The Fed won't do anything to its policy interest rate this week. But its 'words and dots' could raise interest rates for consumers and businesses…
Mar 19
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Claudia Sahm
17
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Connecting the dots: March FOMC edition
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March 11: Past, present, and future
Four years ago, the harsh reality of Covid hit the United States; the bottom fell out for millions of lives and livelihoods. We're in a far better place…
Mar 11
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Claudia Sahm
27
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March 11: Past, present, and future
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RSVP to the Fed's pool party on July 31
The timing of the Fed's first cut is the question in markets. Chill. Fed officials are all over the map on willingness to cut and demand more data. July…
Mar 4
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Claudia Sahm
32
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RSVP to the Fed's pool party on July 31
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February 2024
Big fiscal is a big win for Americans
The past four years have been a mix of tragedy, fear, anger, and recovery. We're so close to the other side of it, and most families are even better off…
Feb 27
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Claudia Sahm
45
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Big fiscal is a big win for Americans
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The Fed is only looking to past inflation, and that's a problem.
Chair Powell has taken March off the table for the first rate cut, implying that the Fed wants at least nine months of good inflation data before even…
Feb 9
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Claudia Sahm
46
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The Fed is only looking to past inflation, and that's a problem.
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January 2024
The "worst possible outcome" for the Fed is an unnecessary recession, not reversing a cut
The Fed must decide when and how much to cut rates this year. Several Fed officials in recent weeks have said they will move slowly. What are they…
Jan 24
•
Claudia Sahm
65
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The "worst possible outcome" for the Fed is an unnecessary recession, not reversing a cut
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