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All eyes are on the Fed, now more than ever
The Fed faces a tough decision on whether to raise interest rates against the backdrop of banks in turmoil and a country with high inflation. The…
Claudia Sahm
Mar 21
31
13
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All eyes are on the Fed, now more than ever
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Trust is hard to gain but is even harder to regain once lost: the Fed should speak up now
Without trust, our economy stops. Without trust, there is no banking system. The turmoil of the past week has tested our trust. The Fed should help…
Claudia Sahm
Mar 16
35
15
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Trust is hard to gain but is even harder to regain once lost: the Fed should speak up now
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A Fed tale as old as time ...
The tale of Silicon Valley Bank and its fallout is still being written, and yet, it’s a story we know all too well. In fact, banking crises are at the…
Claudia Sahm
Mar 14
53
33
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A Fed tale as old as time ...
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What could Fed Chair Jay Powell say to the 2 million people likely to be unemployed?
Earlier this week, Senator Elizabeth Warren pushed Fed Chair Jay Powell on what he would say to the two million workers the Fed expects will lose their…
Claudia Sahm
Mar 9
60
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What could Fed Chair Jay Powell say to the 2 million people likely to be unemployed?
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Hidden costs in auto loans and discrimination
There’s a round-the-clock debate among macroeconomists about how high interest rates need to go to cool off demand and bring inflation down. Rising…
Claudia Sahm
Mar 2
25
13
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Hidden costs in auto loans and discrimination
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February 2023
Can the Fed bring inflation down alone?
No, it cannot.
Claudia Sahm
Feb 23
34
34
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Can the Fed bring inflation down alone?
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A "Top Gun landing"
Markets and macro commentators obsess over every data release and constantly shift their views on recession and inflation risks. So what will this year…
Claudia Sahm
Feb 17
28
16
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A "Top Gun landing"
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The "sufficiently restrictive" Fed. Part 1: The labor market
Fed officials will eventually decide that they have raised interest rates enough. How they make that call is of great importance, and the Fed should…
Claudia Sahm
Feb 15
27
18
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The "sufficiently restrictive" Fed. Part 1: The labor market
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#FedValentines
What a special day! CPI and Valentine’s Day.
Claudia Sahm
Feb 14
28
8
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#FedValentines
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The Phillips Curve is dying a slow (and not painful for us) death
Here are the facts: In January 2023, the U.S. economy added 1/2 million jobs. The best way to solve a labor shortage is with labor. That’s as true now…
Claudia Sahm
Feb 3
34
2
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The Phillips Curve is dying a slow (and not painful for us) death
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What's at stake with restoring 'balance' to the labor market?
Yesterday was Fed Day, and tomorrow is Jobs Day. Fighting inflation and fighting for paychecks. It's important to remember what we lose if we lose jobs.
Claudia Sahm
Feb 2
35
17
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What's at stake with restoring 'balance' to the labor market?
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January 2023
A boring Fed is the new Fed
Don't expect more surprises from the Fed. It's back to the standard playbook of small increases and then hold steady until inflation moves down…
Claudia Sahm
Jan 25
17
2
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A boring Fed is the new Fed
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