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Thomas L. Hutcheson's avatar

I agree about "bad models." But both the models that are being criticized and the criticism itself fail to include Fed policy among the explanatory variables.

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Nick Nolan's avatar

What do think about new average inflation targeting?

Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/

"This question resolves positive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11."

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Mark Louis's avatar

Do you completely discount the market-based inflation measures? 10y breakeven currently 2.22%. Would you be shorting inflation?

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UserFriendlyyy's avatar

Why are they talking about inflation? Because they are rational agents maximizing their utility. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/blacklisted-economics-professor-found-dead-nc-publishes-his-last-letter.html

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Marcus Nunes's avatar

Inflation is a terrible topic of conversation! This piece argues that the new framework for monetary policy - AIT - is DOA

https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/is-the-new-monetary-policy-framework

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