Fears about inflation are as predictable in macro as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west, albeit without any of the beauty. Here we go again.
I agree about "bad models." But both the models that are being criticized and the criticism itself fail to include Fed policy among the explanatory variables.
I agree about "bad models." But both the models that are being criticized and the criticism itself fail to include Fed policy among the explanatory variables.
What do think about new average inflation targeting?
Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/
"This question resolves positive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11."
Do you completely discount the market-based inflation measures? 10y breakeven currently 2.22%. Would you be shorting inflation?
Why are they talking about inflation? Because they are rational agents maximizing their utility. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/blacklisted-economics-professor-found-dead-nc-publishes-his-last-letter.html
Inflation is a terrible topic of conversation! This piece argues that the new framework for monetary policy - AIT - is DOA
https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/is-the-new-monetary-policy-framework