The Sahm rule is a widely followed indicator of recessions. It's gotten a lot of attention from experts who use it to argue we're not in recession and others who weaponize it to say one is coming.
BRAVA! YOU GO GRRL!
Thank you for clear vision in murky times.
Hi Claudia - I’m curious what your views are on a federally funded, locally administered job guarantee? It seems crazy to me we allow people who are willing and able to work spend so much time unemployed. Any objective look at capacity utilization rates and labor force participation shows the economy is operating below its potential. There is ALWAYS work to be done! As you’ve rightly pointed out, losing a job is devastating. It seems to me that guaranteeing employment would work counter-cyclically, and eliminate the need for the automatic stabilizers you mentioned (not to diminish the incredible work you’ve done in this regard and your namesake rule!). Curious to hear your thoughts.
Thank you, Claudia. Your perspective is so helpful and even hopeful. Whatever happens.
Larry S probably has good intentions however his ego makes him seem apathetic to humans. Regardless, I very much subscribe to your macro economic expertise and thank you for the Sahm Rule.
Might there be a way to determine when/if a false fear of a recession would be self-inflicting? Could enough business executives and household consumers pull back to counter all other factual logic that the economy is growing, where only that fear reaction in itself turns the tide into a recession? (Personally, I’m bullish.)
Great article. I hope your study is wrong in 2023 and beyond. If it isn’t let’s hope that the Fed doesn’t sit on their hands.
Keep doing your thing Claudia. You’re a positive light in a profession of old duds.
We need new ways of thinking, like yours.