Economists are often asked to predict the future, but no one can. The present is even hard to explain. Good macro isn't the numbers; it's the story. Getting that right takes trial and error.
It seems the most important thing about learning is distinguishing mistakes in exogenous (especially policy, especially Fed policy) variables from mis-specification of the model.
It seems the most important thing about learning is distinguishing mistakes in exogenous (especially policy, especially Fed policy) variables from mis-specification of the model.