14 Comments

American Rescue Plan:

Pro-Real output, Jobs, Wages, Profits, Stock Market, Household Balance Sheets

Con-Inflation

I think the corporate media is playing up "INFLATION,INFLATION,INFLATION!" because they represent the creditor class. Creditors are the big losers in an inflationary environment. Debtors are the big winners. Things really haven't changed that much since WJ Bryan said "You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold"

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Thank you for adding to the let’s ignore Larry chorus. I sing the hymn in sprkinkled comments whenever I can. I actually think he’s a deep plant by the GOP.

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Jan 4, 2022·edited Jan 4, 2022

The Washington Post's so-called economics reporters trot Larry out constantly. It's maddening. "Hey, let's quote the guy batting . 200 and act like he's Hank Aaron."

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Keep it coming, Claudia. It's lonely out here without a voice helping me believe that what I'm seeing is what I'm seeing!! My kids have better jobs than before the pandemic; my portfolio is better; I recognize that I can and should pay my staff better and now have tools to justify and find those resources and they will have more job satisfaction. The isolated supply chain issues I face (my Starbucks doesn't have lids for Venti hot drinks) I can live with. Now, we do need to keep the child tax credit alive because we should also eliminate child poverty while the mega-trillionaires get even more money (making us learn what comes after trilliion) so the job is not done, but GO JOE - this looks like a winning hand.

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Thank you for the Truth!

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Ever since the 1980s, every recession has had two recoveries. There was a quick, robust one for the upper ranks and a slow, feeble one for everyone else. Each recovery took longer and longer. By the time the recovery trickled down to the bottom, it was time for another recession. (For a comparison of the top 5% and the bottom 20% -> https://www.dropbox.com/s/n1tl8o183gsarhg/US%20-%20Top%205%20vs%20Bottom%2020.jpg)

The US hasn't had a robust post-recession stimulus since the 1950s. Economic growth requires reallocation of resources, and in a price based economy that means inflation. The inflation of the 1970s traumatized so many wealthy people that their trained economists forgot the inflation of the 1940s, 50s and 60s, so whenever the economy shows signs of growth, their reflex is to squelch it.

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i suspect that some are over looking the pandemic and the supply chain crash...which combined with high(er) demand and low supply sounds like the normal prescription for inflation?

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YES! Be wary of Larry.

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Well said. I've started following you on Twitter as well.

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A big, big, huge, humongous buried negative side-effect of this poorly devised plan is now normal people have to pay income tax on personal sales that over $600.00. I used to buy used guitars because the first owner takes the largest hit, so less was lost if I did not bond with the instrument. I could usually resell it for what I had invested. Now, almost every guitar in my collection that I would like to sell sits in the closet because selling it would trigger a 1099-K event. I am sorry, but a $600.00 cap on what are sales of personal items is ridiculous. Almost no one keeps receipts for the day when they may want to part with an item. This move was just greediness on the part of the Democrats part (which is in large part why they have lost the working class white vote,, which they used to own). The Democrats and the Republicans have been sticking it to working class and middle class Americans since the 1980s ushered in supply-side taxation. A government cannot tax its way out of trouble and the $600.00 per year limit for the sales of personal items it is not only bad for people who work for a living, it is going to drive the second hand market underground. The used guitar market has already gone underground to avoid being subjected to this unbelievably short-sighted addition to the bill. The entire second hand market is going to become a black market unless something is done to raise the limit to at least $5K. It used to be $20K.

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yes 70s price of diesel drove transportation thus everything else up

No way around it.

Retirements wrecked Mom & Dad moving in with you!

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As angry birds go(from your next newsletter), I suppose that Mr Summers may be referred-to as a bird of a different color. In my limited opinion, it’s certainly not due to the FED’s policy-execution, that the Trump & Biden Administrations’ handed out money partly as voter/polling enticements, and again IMO, not proportional to the need in many cases, that accelerating inflation was up well above heathy targets of 2ish% in short order in 21’.

To the extent that inflation constitutes a tax on economic activity, NGDP can be used as a proxy for employment activity levels(AOTBE). Seeming to me, the culmination of multiple infusions of liquidity directly to the American Consumption mainline, spurring demand; the resulting affects of workplace safety concern/cultural resistance to contagion enforcement practices/the systemic uncertainties related to mass vaccinations also blunting domestic supply; and the emergence of what appears to be a prolonged 20th century-type War in Eastern Europe—blunting international supplies of staple foods, fuels, & some minerals; all have coalesce as an incredible not-so-perfect storm which could vary world inflation in a convoluted, un-model-able way.

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