Jobs Day will likely be messier than usual with recent hurricanes and a strike weighing temporarily on payrolls. Even with solid underlying growth the headline could look rough.
Great to know you feel good enough to cogently write up this great perspective!! Keep going!
As I said before my concern is landing softly but in sticky mud. The corresponding comfort is that the foundation of the US economy is strong enough to handle that as well and to remain “the envy of the world” for the next three months, or until the effects of the results of elections, both here and overseas, start showing up.
Did you not read the article that explains that payroll data is always noisy? There's good respond why, but to understand requires a foundational understanding of statistics
Wonderful insight as usual. As you said, hopefully there isn’t an overreaction to the NFP numbers for October coming up on Friday. Truly unfortunate that hurricane season plus the recent Boeing strike put a damper on the labor market. With that said, I hope you’re doing well.
So the payroll numbers were recently revised almost 900k on a year look back. Hard to believe much when you get almost a 30 percent reduction in reported payroll. It is almost laughable
Great to know you feel good enough to cogently write up this great perspective!! Keep going!
As I said before my concern is landing softly but in sticky mud. The corresponding comfort is that the foundation of the US economy is strong enough to handle that as well and to remain “the envy of the world” for the next three months, or until the effects of the results of elections, both here and overseas, start showing up.
We won't get a Negative Payroll Print until the New More Honest Regime takes over.....
The BLS has become a Politically run agency....
How did these geniuses at the BLS have a 30% error in their calculations ??
Because those calculations were Intentionally High, in order to prop up the current Leftist Regime.
Did you not read the article that explains that payroll data is always noisy? There's good respond why, but to understand requires a foundational understanding of statistics
Why were the Payroll Number OVERSTATED by 30%, this past year????
That's not noisy........That's HUGE One-Sided "Error"......
I have a very good understanding of Statistics.......that's why I don't believe the numbers from the BLS.......the Numbers are Cooked...
Because initial sampling data and response rates are down. The BLS explains this very simply. It's nothing to do with a deliberate over-statements.
So it took the BLS geniuses 12 months to figure that out???
Meanwhile for the past year, they reported Bogus numbers......
So it was Incompetence, not Political Bias.
Great work, Boys and Girls !!!!
Inspired by your fight against cancer, Claudia. All the best.
Wonderful insight as usual. As you said, hopefully there isn’t an overreaction to the NFP numbers for October coming up on Friday. Truly unfortunate that hurricane season plus the recent Boeing strike put a damper on the labor market. With that said, I hope you’re doing well.
So the payroll numbers were recently revised almost 900k on a year look back. Hard to believe much when you get almost a 30 percent reduction in reported payroll. It is almost laughable
The Sahm rule only uses the unemployment rate not payrolls. The only revisions to the unemployment rate are new seasonal factors.
My point is referring to the “strength” of the US economy based payroll reports, seems to have a blind spot with such large revisions.
Claudia, thanks for your insights as always.
Keep up the good work. It is good to see you do not have "chemo brain."
Always so insightful and balanced, Claudia!
Keep fighting!