I began writing here regularly six months ago, and it's time to chart my path for the new year. You are my audience and your opinion matters most to me!
I teach a course in macro-economics to High School Juniors and Seniors. I introduced them to this newsletter as well as other resources to stay informed on contemporary economic analysis and debates. And today in class I asked them what kinds of topics they'd like to see addressed. Here are some of their replies:
PANDEMIC AND THE ECONOMY
How have technological advancements during the pandemic affected the economy? How has the pandemic affected technological advancements?
How can the country prevent another decline in the economy given another outbreak in the future?
How did/do vaccine mandates affect unemployment?
Will the expanded unemployment benefits that were implemented during the pandemic have any long-term economic effects?
In what ways have generous stimulus checks during the pandemic affected both the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate? Did the unemployment benefits discourage workers from seeking better employment?
How do you think the Omicron variant will affect the economy and will it be easier to bounce back from this outbreak?
How has the recent outbreak compared to the original pandemic back in March-April of 2020 from an economic perspective?
How will the country fully recover from COVID and continue to do well with the new variants?
What impact is the anti-vaccine movement going to likely have on the economy?
How will the long term-effects of the pandemic affect the future of the economy and how will the economy respond to any possible future pandemics?
INFLATION
How has increased consumerism affected inflation?
What is unusual or different about the current bout of inflation compared to previous periods of high inflation?
How is inflation going to change in the next few years?
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
How have different countries' economies been affected due to Covid compared to America?
How do other countries' economic recoveries compare to that of the US?
TAXES
Should we increase taxes on billionaires? Would this help create a more solid middle class?
WOMEN IN ECONOMICS
How does the gender balance in Economics affect women’s eagerness to study in the field?
What other changes are being made now to make it more accessible/comfortable for women in an economic setting?
What challenges do women face in the field of Economics? How can these challenges be overcome?
CAREERS IN ECONOMICS
How are the career opportunities of someone who specializes in macroeconomics different from someone who specializes in microeconomics?
In what ways does being open about one's mental health affect someone professionally?
BANKRUPTCY
I’d like to learn more about bankruptcy. Why is it that very wealthy people are able to declare bankruptcy but still do fine financially?
ECONOMIC NEWS
With so many conflicting opinions about the state of the economy, how can we make sure we are accurately understanding the state of the economy?
What piece of misinformation or conspiracy theory has proven itself particularly damning in influencing how Americans view the state of the economy?
OTHER
Where do you think we should draw the line between data driven analysis and common sense?
What do you think is the largest misconception about the economy and/or economics?
I don't know if they would take too much time or too much effort but I'd really like to see some book reviews, book clubs, maybe some more educational stuff in general or self teaching resources.
I'd be very interested to read more of your thoughts about the strenghts and weaknesses of modelling in economics. The power and limits of data. Your line about "people are not data... put that in your model" etc. And why the new model you're building at the Jain Foundation is different to / better than the rest. And if you have any thoughts about bridging the gap between 'model-world' and 'real-world'. Thanks!
Logic would suggest the spectrum of price controls - from regulations to minimum prices & capped prices and perhaps capital controls as well due to their similarity.
As a navy officer. I was in Vietnam, served on several ships, went to school a lot, and finally became the Director of Energy Research during the 1970s, retired went to Senate staff in 1979 and worked on Energy, Environment. Educated at UNC-CH, Harvard Business School, and Industrial College of the Armed Forces. I am devoted to the late E.O. Wilson and I taught behavioral science. My patents are in nuclear waste isolation, and I created the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network which is now at Columbia University. I am a young 84 and my hobby is defining problems and finding solutions by trial and error. I retired from the Senate in 2020. Covid worries that I would transmit to my wife.
You might want to examine the trends in the U.S. innovation rate: patents, etc. and successful I.P.O.s I have the sense that the innovations are in decline but not certain. The patent application data is probably difficult to sort out. It seems to me that there are lots of corporate protective applications especially in pharma but of real importance and interests are the grass roots innovation. You may as a journalist and skilled writer may be able to persuade the Patent office to help you sort out their data. Another economic topic in "competition", I am recommending to President Biden that the U.S. fund R&D competitions for new technologies that may help us shift away from fossil fuels. I work in superconducting magnetic levitation for transport, space launch, with the goal of electrifying transportation and providing the world with very cheap electricity. With cheap electricity we can create synthetic jet fuel from air and water, desalinate water, and let the market drive the transition to the post carbon future.
Love your writing. I agree with your Larry Summers coaching. I hope he listens.
Agree with the others who have suggested climate change econ, which has really been on the top on my mind since so many people are freaking out about what seems to be energy/auto price driven inflation. Those prices seem likely to be volatile as we continue with the energy transition, and if people keep getting upset over changing price levels it will lead to bad economic policy responses.
Another topic that might be interesting is the China shock as described by Autor et al, which seems to describe a lot of what has gone on in parts of the midwest/south over the past few decades. Many of the worst macro dudes completely disregard that work which gives it more credibility in my eyes!
Monetary stocks and flows. Aspects of that are a mysterious black box even to people with a decent working knowledge of macro. What goes where and to whom? If the economy is doing so well, why are so many people doing worse than ever? Where does all that government spending accumulate on the private side of the ledger and is that bad or good? If government deficits and debts cause inflation, why is Japan with the largest deficits per capita year after year having so much trouble keeping its Yen inflation rate from falling below zero? That sort of thing. I figure someone with fed and treasury expertise is uniquely positioned to break that down. I'm reading a book now about banking politics of the past and it seems in the early 20th century (and even the late 19th to a degree) the average working person was far more literate on economics, money, finance and banking than people are today.
I've been trying to teach myself some on that and I have to confess I'm having a lot of fun playing with the charting functions on the FRED section of the St Louis Fed website.
good one. it will take me a while. mainly because I need to source in some experts better than me. I know the debate on a cursory basis. important one.
For the sake of argument, let's assume that the Republicans remain fully committed to a Trump restoration and the establishment of illiberal democracy. In that case, they will continue to seek tax cuts for the rich and the elimination of business regulations but have nothing to contribute to general macroeconomic policy debates.
And in that case all meaningful macro policy debates will take place within the scope of the Democratic party; to oversimplify, AOC on the left, Larry Summers on the right. I don't necessarily expect you to endorse a Sanders-type agenda, AOC's version of the Green New Deal, or MMT -- thought that would be nice! -- but I would like you to continue to vigorously expose the impact of Summers-style economic thinking on mainstream Democratic policy and practice. When all is said and done, the Democratic party is still the main organ of neoliberalism in this country.
You should write about the fundamental problem. We have a society where the most universal shared value is money and this system and its values have yielded more wealth for more people than any other in history. But it has also resulted in predictable problems. Money as the measure of value means that the pursuit of money destroys familes, the environment, communities, democracy, drinking water, food. And yet what is an alternative value system that is workable and universal?
Amen. wealth inequality is a sign of deeper problems in the economy. debate must move beyond presenting the numbers and explain its causes, which are many. AND put some solutions forward. no silver bullet.
The economic viability of green energy and green products. For example, electric cars remain out of reach of many people in the country for many reasons. Climate change is real and we must move our country that direction. How do we do that equitably, sustaining jobs, and making it affordable to all Americans.
green fiscal has been on my list for months. it's a big topic that is NOT getting enough attention. my biggest kudos to the Squad is constantly bringing into the debate. they need economic advice on it.
I love this post. I enjoy your writing. If I can provide my input in the following way 1- what to continue? Posts shedding light on how the fed works and the impact on markets 2-what to write more about? new research in macro/policy econ
I teach a course in macro-economics to High School Juniors and Seniors. I introduced them to this newsletter as well as other resources to stay informed on contemporary economic analysis and debates. And today in class I asked them what kinds of topics they'd like to see addressed. Here are some of their replies:
PANDEMIC AND THE ECONOMY
How have technological advancements during the pandemic affected the economy? How has the pandemic affected technological advancements?
How can the country prevent another decline in the economy given another outbreak in the future?
How did/do vaccine mandates affect unemployment?
Will the expanded unemployment benefits that were implemented during the pandemic have any long-term economic effects?
In what ways have generous stimulus checks during the pandemic affected both the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate? Did the unemployment benefits discourage workers from seeking better employment?
How do you think the Omicron variant will affect the economy and will it be easier to bounce back from this outbreak?
How has the recent outbreak compared to the original pandemic back in March-April of 2020 from an economic perspective?
How will the country fully recover from COVID and continue to do well with the new variants?
What impact is the anti-vaccine movement going to likely have on the economy?
How will the long term-effects of the pandemic affect the future of the economy and how will the economy respond to any possible future pandemics?
INFLATION
How has increased consumerism affected inflation?
What is unusual or different about the current bout of inflation compared to previous periods of high inflation?
How is inflation going to change in the next few years?
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
How have different countries' economies been affected due to Covid compared to America?
How do other countries' economic recoveries compare to that of the US?
TAXES
Should we increase taxes on billionaires? Would this help create a more solid middle class?
WOMEN IN ECONOMICS
How does the gender balance in Economics affect women’s eagerness to study in the field?
What other changes are being made now to make it more accessible/comfortable for women in an economic setting?
What challenges do women face in the field of Economics? How can these challenges be overcome?
CAREERS IN ECONOMICS
How are the career opportunities of someone who specializes in macroeconomics different from someone who specializes in microeconomics?
In what ways does being open about one's mental health affect someone professionally?
BANKRUPTCY
I’d like to learn more about bankruptcy. Why is it that very wealthy people are able to declare bankruptcy but still do fine financially?
ECONOMIC NEWS
With so many conflicting opinions about the state of the economy, how can we make sure we are accurately understanding the state of the economy?
What piece of misinformation or conspiracy theory has proven itself particularly damning in influencing how Americans view the state of the economy?
OTHER
Where do you think we should draw the line between data driven analysis and common sense?
What do you think is the largest misconception about the economy and/or economics?
I don't know if they would take too much time or too much effort but I'd really like to see some book reviews, book clubs, maybe some more educational stuff in general or self teaching resources.
good idea. I have a few I would like to review. I was not sure how much demand there is.
why did I not realize Stay-At-Home Macro spells SAHM 🤦♀️
a friend suggested it. love it.
I'd be very interested to read more of your thoughts about the strenghts and weaknesses of modelling in economics. The power and limits of data. Your line about "people are not data... put that in your model" etc. And why the new model you're building at the Jain Foundation is different to / better than the rest. And if you have any thoughts about bridging the gap between 'model-world' and 'real-world'. Thanks!
Logic would suggest the spectrum of price controls - from regulations to minimum prices & capped prices and perhaps capital controls as well due to their similarity.
As an educator, I'm always interested in learning more about changes in how economics is taught.
As a navy officer. I was in Vietnam, served on several ships, went to school a lot, and finally became the Director of Energy Research during the 1970s, retired went to Senate staff in 1979 and worked on Energy, Environment. Educated at UNC-CH, Harvard Business School, and Industrial College of the Armed Forces. I am devoted to the late E.O. Wilson and I taught behavioral science. My patents are in nuclear waste isolation, and I created the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network which is now at Columbia University. I am a young 84 and my hobby is defining problems and finding solutions by trial and error. I retired from the Senate in 2020. Covid worries that I would transmit to my wife.
You might want to examine the trends in the U.S. innovation rate: patents, etc. and successful I.P.O.s I have the sense that the innovations are in decline but not certain. The patent application data is probably difficult to sort out. It seems to me that there are lots of corporate protective applications especially in pharma but of real importance and interests are the grass roots innovation. You may as a journalist and skilled writer may be able to persuade the Patent office to help you sort out their data. Another economic topic in "competition", I am recommending to President Biden that the U.S. fund R&D competitions for new technologies that may help us shift away from fossil fuels. I work in superconducting magnetic levitation for transport, space launch, with the goal of electrifying transportation and providing the world with very cheap electricity. With cheap electricity we can create synthetic jet fuel from air and water, desalinate water, and let the market drive the transition to the post carbon future.
Love your writing. I agree with your Larry Summers coaching. I hope he listens.
Jim Jordan, Falls Church, VA 22046
Agree with the others who have suggested climate change econ, which has really been on the top on my mind since so many people are freaking out about what seems to be energy/auto price driven inflation. Those prices seem likely to be volatile as we continue with the energy transition, and if people keep getting upset over changing price levels it will lead to bad economic policy responses.
Another topic that might be interesting is the China shock as described by Autor et al, which seems to describe a lot of what has gone on in parts of the midwest/south over the past few decades. Many of the worst macro dudes completely disregard that work which gives it more credibility in my eyes!
Monetary stocks and flows. Aspects of that are a mysterious black box even to people with a decent working knowledge of macro. What goes where and to whom? If the economy is doing so well, why are so many people doing worse than ever? Where does all that government spending accumulate on the private side of the ledger and is that bad or good? If government deficits and debts cause inflation, why is Japan with the largest deficits per capita year after year having so much trouble keeping its Yen inflation rate from falling below zero? That sort of thing. I figure someone with fed and treasury expertise is uniquely positioned to break that down. I'm reading a book now about banking politics of the past and it seems in the early 20th century (and even the late 19th to a degree) the average working person was far more literate on economics, money, finance and banking than people are today.
I've been trying to teach myself some on that and I have to confess I'm having a lot of fun playing with the charting functions on the FRED section of the St Louis Fed website.
good one. it will take me a while. mainly because I need to source in some experts better than me. I know the debate on a cursory basis. important one.
I believe quality is always worth the wait 🙂
For the sake of argument, let's assume that the Republicans remain fully committed to a Trump restoration and the establishment of illiberal democracy. In that case, they will continue to seek tax cuts for the rich and the elimination of business regulations but have nothing to contribute to general macroeconomic policy debates.
And in that case all meaningful macro policy debates will take place within the scope of the Democratic party; to oversimplify, AOC on the left, Larry Summers on the right. I don't necessarily expect you to endorse a Sanders-type agenda, AOC's version of the Green New Deal, or MMT -- thought that would be nice! -- but I would like you to continue to vigorously expose the impact of Summers-style economic thinking on mainstream Democratic policy and practice. When all is said and done, the Democratic party is still the main organ of neoliberalism in this country.
what's happening in Dem economic policy is a bfd. I am trying to make sense of it and not get smashed in the process :-)
Income inequality and what the Federal Reserve is (or isn't but could be) doing about it.
agree!
You should write about the fundamental problem. We have a society where the most universal shared value is money and this system and its values have yielded more wealth for more people than any other in history. But it has also resulted in predictable problems. Money as the measure of value means that the pursuit of money destroys familes, the environment, communities, democracy, drinking water, food. And yet what is an alternative value system that is workable and universal?
Amen. wealth inequality is a sign of deeper problems in the economy. debate must move beyond presenting the numbers and explain its causes, which are many. AND put some solutions forward. no silver bullet.
Inflation, fiscal policy, and miscellaneous would be my top picks for topics going into 2022.
I am sure you will get those.
The economic viability of green energy and green products. For example, electric cars remain out of reach of many people in the country for many reasons. Climate change is real and we must move our country that direction. How do we do that equitably, sustaining jobs, and making it affordable to all Americans.
green fiscal has been on my list for months. it's a big topic that is NOT getting enough attention. my biggest kudos to the Squad is constantly bringing into the debate. they need economic advice on it.
I love this post. I enjoy your writing. If I can provide my input in the following way 1- what to continue? Posts shedding light on how the fed works and the impact on markets 2-what to write more about? new research in macro/policy econ
excellent ideas. my day-job is going to focus a lot more on macro research /policy nexus.