The risk of an uneven recovery far exceeds the risk of uncontrollable inflation. Data and research show that the inflation hawks are wrong again. Congress must do more.
President Biden expects there to be enough vaccine doses for all adult Americans by Memorial Day. Exactly what sectors do you not think we come roaring back, and how would stimulus change that? For example, will airlines come back with more stimulus, or will it simply take time for the public to become comfortable flying again?
I think there is a general misconception that we are in a recession. The evidence of this is scant. Rather, we are facing suppression. The difference between a recession and a suppression is that, in the former you feel ill and can't get out of bed, and in the latter, you feel fine but there is a guy sitting on your chest preventing you from getting out of bed. If you give uppers -- a stimulus -- to the former, then they will eventually collect themselves and slowly resume normal life. If you give a stimulus to the latter, they will become both hyperactive and bed-bound at the same time, for example, you'll see a stock market going through the roof and real housing prices at record highs in the C-S index in an economy ostensibly in deep recession. If you get off the latter's chest, things will go back to normal almost immediately, indeed, we'll see hyperactivity from all that stimulus the bed-bound has taken.
Of course, there are humanitarian grounds to bridge the financial situations of those in need. But policy predicated on the notion that this is a typical recession is likely to lead to disaster, I think.
"Gap models" are a waste of time. See how the estimate of potential output is always being revised to converge to actual!
Claudia -
President Biden expects there to be enough vaccine doses for all adult Americans by Memorial Day. Exactly what sectors do you not think we come roaring back, and how would stimulus change that? For example, will airlines come back with more stimulus, or will it simply take time for the public to become comfortable flying again?
I think there is a general misconception that we are in a recession. The evidence of this is scant. Rather, we are facing suppression. The difference between a recession and a suppression is that, in the former you feel ill and can't get out of bed, and in the latter, you feel fine but there is a guy sitting on your chest preventing you from getting out of bed. If you give uppers -- a stimulus -- to the former, then they will eventually collect themselves and slowly resume normal life. If you give a stimulus to the latter, they will become both hyperactive and bed-bound at the same time, for example, you'll see a stock market going through the roof and real housing prices at record highs in the C-S index in an economy ostensibly in deep recession. If you get off the latter's chest, things will go back to normal almost immediately, indeed, we'll see hyperactivity from all that stimulus the bed-bound has taken.
Of course, there are humanitarian grounds to bridge the financial situations of those in need. But policy predicated on the notion that this is a typical recession is likely to lead to disaster, I think.