No, you didn't invent the Sahm rule and that's ok, we need more tools! - Revised
I am sending a more ‘just the facts’ version of Friday’s post on the Sahm rule.
It’s updated on the website, too. Apologies for ‘the me’ in the original post. That’s gone. It’s odd to have a rule named after me, and it's not always pleasant. Even so, I’m happy it’s helpful, and thrilled it hasn’t triggered!
No, you didn't invent the Sahm rule and that's ok, we need more tools!
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Main takeaway: The Sahm rule indicates that the U.S. economy is in the early months of a recession. It is not a forecast. Any rule for forecasting or anything other than the U.S. (national) economy is not the Sahm rule.
Lucas aside
Markets have no iron laws
fewer rules
Much anarchy
Only norms
Stand between caveat and plunge
Norms
As giddy as a shore breeze