The Fed says inflation expectations are anchored, but it worries they won't stay that way. What does that mean and why is it important enough to risk millions of jobs?
If the Fed’s aggressive stance increases U-3 by 50bps, is the “Sahm Rule” more like the Taylor Rule or the Heisenberg Principle? Is it an observation or closer to a law of nature?
Sahm rule has no false positives since the 1970s and has trigger within 2 to 4 months of the recessions start (determined by the NBER later.) before that it only trigger once in the 1950s ahead not within a recession. That said, it is not a law of nature. This time could be different.
If the Fed’s aggressive stance increases U-3 by 50bps, is the “Sahm Rule” more like the Taylor Rule or the Heisenberg Principle? Is it an observation or closer to a law of nature?
Sahm rule has no false positives since the 1970s and has trigger within 2 to 4 months of the recessions start (determined by the NBER later.) before that it only trigger once in the 1950s ahead not within a recession. That said, it is not a law of nature. This time could be different.