Was Jobs Day a good day for the Fed?

372,000 more jobs in June and unemployment rate at 3.6%. We are not in a recession, but if the Fed gets too anxious about the labor market's strength, we could get there.

Today’s post is mainly for paid subscribers. I discuss the Fed’s thinking on inflation and jobs. First, a broader conversation about the labor market for everyone.

To any normal person, Jobs Day was a happy day. The Fed is not normal.

Listen to my conversation with Mark Zandi and Ryan Sweet at Moody’s. We talked about the employment report and why it was great. We also cover the overall economy: how we got here and where we are headed: YouTube below and a podcast.

Note: At one point in the conversation, I claim incorrectly that NBER does not use GDP in recession dating. It does use GDP with GDI, in addition to the series I referred to. We aren’t in one!

Behind the paywall, I dig into what the recent news on jobs and inflation mean for the Fed’s vote later in July. Subscribe to read and support my work.