Ones to watch

I'm honored to be part of the MarketWatch 50 for 2024.

Source: MarketWatch.

What do Bill Ackman, Claudia Sahm, Keith Gill and Jensen Huang have in common? At first glance, it may not seem like much. One is a hedge-fund manager who is vocal about more than just his investments. Another is an economist whose analysis has been closely followed amid the debate over the Federal Reserve’s approach to the economy. One moves the stock market with a tweet, and another leads a company with one of the biggest market capitalizations in the world …

The MarketWatch 50 is made up of people whose decisions, opinions and insights reverberate through these financial markets. They help move the prices of securities, commodities, currencies and illiquid assets. They influence the way participants think about and act in markets. Through their oversight, they shape how markets are structured. And ultimately, they have an outsize influence on your wallet …

This year’s list also reflects investors’ and consumers’ focus on interest-rate policy and its impact on affordability. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell lands on the list after the central bank moved aggressively to curb inflation and stave off recession. Sahm, the chief economist at New Century Advisors, is appearing on the list for the first time. Policy makers and pundits this year have been closely watching the Sahm rule, a recession tracker she developed. 

That’s from the introduction to the 2024 list.

More about me.

And here’s my profile:

Macroeconomist Claudia Sahm was the first to notice that a recession always started after the national unemployment rate's three-month moving average rose by 0.5 percentage point. The Sahm rule, introduced in 2019, was triggered in July, leading economists to question whether the U.S. was headed for a recession. Sahm, formerly of the Federal Reserve Board and the Council of Economic Advisors, quickly became a key voice in conversations about the state of the economy and the Fed's path forward. She noted in a Bloomberg op-ed that the Sahm rule "joins a long list of economic tools skewed by the unusual disruptions of the past four and a half years."

Fun Facts

• Writes a Substack called “Stay-at-Home Macro,” also known as SAHM.

• Initially developed the Sahm rule as an apolitical way to determine when relief measures like stimulus checks needed to be sent out.

• Was a Fulbright scholar at the Dresden University of Technology in Germany, where she researched economic transitions in post-socialist countries.

And my interview with video on the September employment report and the economy in general with Greg Robb.

Here’s a link to a podcast episode with me and Meb Faber, another group member,

The entire list is notable.

Here is the full list of 50, spanning a wide range of work and perspectives. Wow.

Specifically, I was in the Market Mavens category:

Two fun facts about the Mavens list.

1. There are more Claudias than men. Claudia Goldin and I vs. David Autor. I bring this up as a riff on ‘diversity’ findings like this one from 2015: “There Are More Men Named John Than Women Running Large Companies.” How times change!

2. kyla scanlon
   , a force of nature, is a Maven too. You must follow Kyla. Her Powell improvs are the best, like this one, to mark 50 bps. Buy her book, too!

In closing.

It’s very cool to have such recognition of my work. Even so, it’s only my third most memorable 50 of the year: Sahm rule trigger, and the 50 bps cut are first and second.

Here’s to rounding 2024 out well in the economy and to good health.

Personal note: Thank you for the outpouring of well wishes. My first week of chemotherapy at Dana Farber went well, and I am thrilled to be fighting back finally, even if it’s a fight that’s taking up much of my energy. Worth it.