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Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

Passengers please fasten your seatbelts, there's heavy turbulence up ahead. Also be prepared to brace for a crash landing.

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ban nock's avatar

It's frustrating that the folks we expect to caretake the health of our economy aren't also given more control over things like taxing (and tax breaking) and spending.

I'm still hoping for drastic wage inflation at the lower end.

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John StPete's avatar

The folks that control the health of our economy ARE responsible for the lack of taxing and regulation that benefits our U.S. Oligarchic Kleptocracy through THEIR politicians that have been corrupted via campaign investments (not donations) by these same folks.

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FGM's avatar

Regarding today's helpful Bloomberg column by Claudia Sahm, I doubt whether publishing the Tealbook would placate anyone. I'm dubious about livestreaming the FOMC meetings as well. I don't think current disputes are grounded in public spirited disagreement.

But her list contained things to consider (not necessarily implement) and planning for a greater openness scenario makes sense. And becoming explicit about the costs of political interference as well as safeguarding the Fed's branch President selection is sound advice.

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Leslie Ehrlich's avatar

Thanks as always for clear and cogent analysis

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John StPete's avatar

Folks complain about so-called Communist central planning.

There aren't better examples of ultimate central planning than the Capitalist Federal Reserve, Wall Street, and the City of London.

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ADIL SAYEED's avatar

I think Fed should take a look at Australia,s 2-3 per cent inflation target range. Agreed that Powell has been a good Fed chair. Trump,s best appointment ever. Will incoming governor Miran be at Jackson hole? If yes, will he openly challenge chair Powell?

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John StPete's avatar

How about the Fed's responsibility to maintain full-employment?

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ADIL SAYEED's avatar

I am not an expert on this. As best I understand it, the Fed interprets "maximum sustainable employment" to mean employment level consistent with 2 per cent inflation target.

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John StPete's avatar

I’m not an expert either. As you say, that’s what they’re supposed to do, and maybe they say it now and again, but when have they consistently acted to promote full employment? It’s not what they say, it’s what they do.

My POV is their primary and overriding concern is inflation, as it aligns with the concerns of their Moneyed Interests.

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Owen Paine's avatar

Credit policy should NOT get conflate with inflation reg policy

We must construct an independent price level path monitoring and regulating system

Consider a review of colander Lerner cap and trade warrant system

To internalize firm mark up

inflation impact

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John StPete's avatar

Full-employment?

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Owen Paine's avatar

Full employment is

a multi dimensional

Macro / micro task of the state

Requiring several mutually

co ordinated lines of attack

Some system wide

some local

If the goal is income according to

Life time work

The state here in north America

Is far from capable.

Of supporting

That righteous mission

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Albert Aftoora's avatar

I don't understand why an historical amount of inflation (year-over-year), rather than an annualized monthly rate of inflation, is used a guideline to monetary policy. It is also strange that the Fed seems to ignore the fact that federal spending levels are providing a massive stimulus in demand and there's no sign of it changing.

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Owen Paine's avatar

Fiscal Deficit as macro thruster

Depends crucially on

Points of injection

Tax cut for billionaires

Purchase of tariffed laden imports

Dont be too surprised

If all this to and from

Ends up really mostly

a capital cloud show

Increased demand for real domestic output may be marginal

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John Evans-Klock's avatar

I don't think the Fed is ignoring the fiscal stimulus, but it is probably aware that tax cuts, especially at higher income levels, are much less stimulative than spending. It would be interesting to see a good simulation asking what interest rates would be without reckless government borrowing. For sure we would be a lot closer to a Zero Lower Bound.

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Owen Paine's avatar

Nominal interest rates

are a policy choice

Like a roulette wheel

with a hidden brake & pedal

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Chris Paulse's avatar

Isn't it magical thinking to adhere to the 2% target as climate change eats away at supply chains to a greater extent with each passing year? Also, is it possible that financial stability might be a greater priority when you have record margin debt, credit spreads, and Athene reacting to regulatory scrutiny by saying "have you looked around at the other guys" (https://www.ft.com/content/0e583022-0650-4079-957e-3377ec958411)?

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Claudia Sahm's avatar

On the target, I could foresee discussions to raise it in the future. With financial stability, the Fed has tools outside of monetary policy, like bank regulation, that are better suited.

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Owen Paine's avatar

Yes regulations on credit standards and mortgage conditions

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Chris Paulse's avatar

I wonder if they see oligopoly (I. Weber, S. Storm) as an additional reason to tolerate a higher rate of inflation, or if the WH will impress this upon them lol. You have to be impressed that DGSE could survive 2008. Maybe the next crisis will finally do it in.

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Owen Paine's avatar

Wr9ng pokicy tree.

Jump down and find a regulation sapling

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Owen Paine's avatar

Bank regulation

By who ?

The gang that cleaned up

after fall 2008

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Owen Paine's avatar

Magical public thinking

Is special interest private thinking

Ritualized and numericated

for enhanced mass credulity and misdirection

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