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Stay-At-Home Macro
My goal is to make the world of economic policy and macroeconomics more accessible.
By Claudia Sahm · Hundreds of paid subscribers
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Let me read it first
"Softening in labor market conditions" will hit millions of workers and their families hard
The Fed raised rates another 75 basis points this week in its aggressive effort to curb inflation. Worryingly, it sees the strength of workers as standing in the way of its goal.
Jul 29
17
4
Recession: medicine that's worse than the disease
Some experts say we need a recession to bring high inflation down. That's incorrect. Their model of the economy and views on what's causing inflation risk making a bad situation much worse.
Jul 20
29
17
The best way to solve a labor shortage is with labor
In July we added a 1/2 million jobs on net, wages rose briskly and the unemployment rate fell to its 50-year low. That's a sign of progress.
Aug 8
22
7
Don't make the Fed go it alone on inflation
The Fed is raising interest rates to cool off demand and bring inflation down. That's trading one hardship for another. The White House and Congress must get in the game and fight inflation too.
Jun 26
8
2
Most popular
Let's get real: the American Rescue Plan was the best economic policy in forty years
30
13
We are not in a recession, nor is one inevitable.
32
19
Emily Oster is making strong claims about Omicron and schools based on weak data
17
10
$1 trillion in checks and 5% inflation. Worth it!
23
5
Recession: medicine that's worse than the disease
29
17
Who should get a $1,400 check?
25
12
See all popular
New
Community
Anchors away
The Fed says inflation expectations are anchored, but it worries they won't stay that way. What does that mean and why is it important enough to risk…
Jul 14
16
2
Sending money to kids didn't cause high inflation
Last year the new Child Tax Credit sent money to families monthly, supporting kids from the poor to the middle class. It expired at the end of the year…
Jul 6
17
7
The future of forward guidance
The Fed has been usually specific this year about its plans, signaling the likely size of interest rate hikes ahead of time. Last week Chair Powell said…
Aug 1
3
Friday Macro Unwind - July 22
We made it!
Jul 22
11
1
Was Jobs Day a good day for the Fed?
372,000 more jobs in June and unemployment rate at 3.6%. We are not in a recession, but if the Fed gets too anxious about the labor market's strength…
Jul 10
3
The dark side of a data-driven Fed
Data are central to Fed policymaking, and that's a good thing. However, data are imperfect and do not speak for themselves, so sometimes they lead us…
Jun 27
4
3
Congress and the White House must 'move heaven and earth' to get gasoline prices down!
Gas is $5 a gallon. That's a dollar and half more than before Putin invaded Ukraine and two and half more than when the pandemic began. It's time to…
Jun 17
17
7
In Fed we trust
The least democratic institution in the government is the only one trying to bring down inflation. That's far too risky. Congress and White House must…
Jun 16
15
3
See all
Most popular
Let's get real: the American Rescue Plan was the best economic policy in forty years
30
13
We are not in a recession, nor is one inevitable.
32
19
Emily Oster is making strong claims about Omicron and schools based on weak data
17
10
$1 trillion in checks and 5% inflation. Worth it!
23
5
Recession: medicine that's worse than the disease
29
17
Who should get a $1,400 check?
25
12
See all popular
Stay-At-Home Macro
My goal is to make the world of economic policy and macroeconomics more accessible.
Subscribe
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