Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

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The Sahm rule: step by step
Tomorrow is Job's Day, and we will learn what the unemployment rate was in November. So, it'll also be time to update the Sahm rule, my recession…
 • 
Claudia Sahm
4
I was right.
This weekend, Joe Weisenthal asked the following question: A year ago, there was a lot of debate about whether Biden’s checks at the start of his…
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Claudia Sahm
38
Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
Jobs, paychecks, spending, wealth, and financial security have made big gains, which offset the burden of higher inflation. That's true for most…
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Claudia Sahm
64
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I was right.
 • Claudia Sahm
38
Most Americans are better off financially now than before the pandemic
 • Claudia Sahm
64
Sometimes, the impossible is possible. Ask the US economy.
 • Claudia Sahm
7
Let's get real: the American Rescue Plan was the best economic policy in forty years
 • Claudia Sahm
14
Why can't we shake the gloom? It's more than inflation or higher prices.
 • Claudia Sahm
67
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Why might this time be different?
With the unemployment rate up, concerns about a recession are up, too. The Sahm rule, my recession indicator, is getting attention and giving me…
6
Quick update on the Sahm rule
The unemployment rate increased to 3.9% in October; job gains slowed to 150,000--a sign that the recent burst in economic activity and jobs was likely…
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Claudia Sahm
27
Sometimes, the impossible is possible. Ask the US economy.
Real GDP shot up 4.9% in the third quarter, and core inflation fell to 2.4%, more signs that we are well on our way to the soft landing.
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Claudia Sahm
7
Jay Powell's Greenspan moment
The Fed is increasingly concerned about "above-trend" growth. In the mid-1990s, Greenspan grappled with it, too, and wisely held off on raising rates…
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Claudia Sahm
27
The SEP Strikes Back
The Fed voted to hold the federal funds rate at 5.25% last week, but its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), for which there's no vote, raised…
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Claudia Sahm
3
It's what you thought you knew but didn't that breaks your heart: GDP revision edition
This week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will update the national accounts, which include GDP and other key statistics. It could alter the narrative…
 • 
Claudia Sahm
11
Why can't we shake the gloom? It's more than inflation or higher prices.
What should be good news for people seems to be falling flat even relative to prior times with high inflation.
 • 
Claudia Sahm
67
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
My goal is to make economic policy and macroeconomics better.
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